Stati Uniti al test dei tagli al budget. Ultima chance per Obama
25 febbraio 2013 – 10.56
E’ arrivata anche l’ultima scadenza per trovare, negli Stati Uniti, un accordo su un piano di tagli alla spesa pubblica, che consenta di frenare la corsa del debito. Le trattative sono serratissime fra Democratici e Repubblicani e l’ultimo incontro fra il Presidente Barack Obama ed i leader dei due schieramenti sembra che abbia lasciato soddisfatti i partecipanti, convinti di trovare un compromesso entro la deadline del 1° marzo.
Cosa accadrà venerdì prossimo? In caso di mancato accordo su un piano di spending review, scatterà un pool di tagli automatici alla spesa per un valore di circa 85 miliardi di dollari, che dovrebbe prevedere un taglio del 9% delle spese discrezionali e del 13% delle spese per la Difesa.
Questa misura, che stavolta a Washington non viene chiamata “fiscal cliff”, ma “sequester”, avrà ripercussioni negative importanti sull’economia statunitense. Il Congressional Budget Office prevede che questo piano di tagli automatici abbia un impatto negativo sul PIL pari allo 0,6% e e costare ben 750 mila posti di lavoro nel 2013.
Secondo gli economisti l’impatto potrebbe essere anche più forte nel secondo trimestre dell’anno, pari all’1-1,5%, con una forte perdita di posti di lavoro. Lo conferma anche la contrazione del PIL del quarto trimestre (-0,1%), che è stata appunto imputata al taglio della spesa effettuato da molte Amministrazioni pubbliche, che si stavano già preparando alla scadenza del 31 dicembre scorso, quella del cosiddetto “fiscal cliff”.
Naturalmente, l’austerity coinvolgerebbe i settori pubblici più diversi, dalla difesa, alla salute (il servizio NHS), all’agenzia per l’ambiente EPA, al centro di rilevazione meteorologica (NOAA). I tagli non lascerebbero indenne neanche la ricerca, con ripercussioni non solo di breve periodo, ma anche di lungo periodo.
L’accordo fra democratici e Repubblicani, al di là delle dichiarazioni a caldo, appare ancora una chimera, data la diversità di vedute su come, quanto e dove tagliare. Tanto più che il Presidente Obama, appena rieletto, sta portando avanti la sua linea guida: più tasse ai ricchi e meno tagli alla spesa. Dal lato opposto i Repubblicani, che vorrebbero ridurre i capitoli di spesa più cospicui, a partire da quello sanitario, aggravato dalla riforma di Obama.
Poll: Budget cuts? What budget cuts?
WASHINGTON — Despite weeks of dire warnings from Washington about automatic budget cuts set for March 1, the U.S. public is only dimly aware of them, according to a poll released Thursday.
About 43 percent of those polled had only heard a little about the deep cuts that could disrupt many important government services like meat inspection and air traffic control.
Of all those questioned on the topic, 40 percent would let them take effect while 49 percent would delay them, according to the survey, conducted by the Pew Research Center and USA Today.
About half of those surveyed said Republicans in Congress would be more to blame for the spending reductions versus 31 percent who would blame Democratic President Barack Obama.
The findings may help explain the lack of activity in Congress, which has the power to stop or delay the so-called sequestration. Congress is not meeting this week, even as officials from the Pentagon and other agencies sound alarms across the country about the widespread consequences of the cuts, including furloughs of thousands of federal employees.
The reductions, totaling $85 billion spread evenly between defense and non-defense programs, were set in motion in August, 2011 as part of a deficit reduction deal between Democrats and Republicans designed to head off a debt default by the Treasury.
While Obama and members of Congress say the issue is urgent, about 29 percent of Americans polled said they have heard nothing at all about the issue while 27 percent said they have heard a lot.
The survey of 1,504 adults nationwide, reached on home telephone lines and cell phones, was conducted between Feb. 13 and Feb. 18 and had a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.
http://news.msn.com/politics/poll-budget-cuts-what-budget-cuts
The US sequester: your essential guide to the looming spending cuts
The sequester is scheduled to kick in on March 1, with $85bn in cuts set to hit a variety of programs. We give you the lowdown
Just when you thought it was safe to read the news from Washington again, another “manufactured crisis” – in the words of the president – is on our doorstep.
So far, politicians have only been arguing publicly about who should take the blame without actually speaking to each other. President Obama appeared at a press conference this week, when Congress was not in session, standing in front of a group of first responders in uniform to repeat critical lines about his congressional adversaries, criticizing the “manufactured crisis” and a “meat cleaver approach to politics.” Boehner, in return, wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal attributing the sequester to “the president’s own failed leadership.”
The war of words reprises a similar one over the fiscal cliff last year. As a result, when Obama called Republican leaders this week, it was the first time he had reached out to House speaker John Boehner since December 28, and to Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell since January 1.
So what is the fuss all about? On March 1, an $85bn group of budget cuts known as the sequester will go into effect. They will wipe out a host of federal programs in everything from national parks to the Pentagon to the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Hidden among the cuts, of course, will be cuts to the services that many Americans see most often in their everyday lives – education, healthcare and even aviation. Here is our guide to what to expect.
What is the sequester?
Well … remember the fiscal cliff?
Yes. Something about Congress designing spending cuts and tax hikes to happen at the same time like some economic sci-fi movie?
Right. The tax hikes have been taken care of; our payroll taxes went up earlier this year, which is why your paycheck looks smaller.
The sequester is the spending cuts. They’re still set to go in place, as of March 1.
We never figured that out?
With this Congress? Really?
I take your point. So what are we dealing with now?
On March 1, unless Congress averts them, about $85bn in cuts will hit a wide range of government programs. The majority of that – about $47bn in cuts – will hit defense programs. The Pentagon isn’t happy about this, and it will result in layoffs or at least furloughs. But unless you work at the Pentagon or for a defense contractor, that’s not something you’re likely to feel in your own life. What you will feel, most likely, are either the $9.9 billion in Medicare cuts or the $28.7bn reduction in “domestic discretionary programs,” which is what you really should watch.
How many cuts will there be?
Literally hundreds.
Is there one place where I can see all the cuts and peruse them, perhaps in front of a warm fire with a cup of hot chocolate?
Yes, there are several guides, but we have to warn you: it’s less like sitting in an easy chair and more like wandering through a dark, unlit dungeon. The White House’s Office of Management and Budget put out a thorough but largely unreadable report last summer and Senator Tom Harkin’s office has a friendlier rundown of the programs he would prefer not to see cut. The Congressional Budget Office also has a list separating the cuts as they apply to each committee, going back to 2011.
Why do the reports go back to 2011?
Because, sadly, that’s when this whole nightmare started. That was when Congress was first fighting with the President over the budget, and to break the logjam, the President proposed a list of automatic spending cuts designed to go into effect at a later date. The cuts were designed to be so patently horrible and stupid that no right-thinking lawmaker would let them actually happen. The effect was to create a situation not unlike the careening bus in the movie Speed. The cuts were designed to be so bad that Congress, like Keanu Reeves and Sandra Bullock, would be forced to take the wheel and bring the sequester to a full stop.
Which programs get hardest hit?
There are so many programs implicated in the sequester that it would take months, and a team of data scientists, to answer that question.
There do seem, however, to be some very significant cuts to programs designed to help low-income families, who are already suffering from the after-effects of the recession. Public housing subsidies, for instance, would be cut by $1.9bn, just as the costs for household items like food and gas rise. Those cuts to housing and rental assistance could hurt about 125,000 poor families, according to some estimates.
What programs or services really stand out, though?
Let’s take this group by group. The ones you’re most likely to care about will be education, healthcare and employment. At least, those were the subjects discussed at a hearing that was “arranged by Democrats and attended by no Republicans,” according to The Hill.
What educational programs would be lost?
Well, first, there’s federally funded daycare, which will likely cause some pains for working parents. If Congress allows the sequester, it will hit the government’s Child Care & Development Block Grants, which would leave over 30,000 kids – and tens of thousands of families – without daycare.
Overall, about $1.3bn will be cut from the education budget, which will start hitting schools this fall. According to an analysis last summer by Tom Harkin, educational programs for disadvantaged children are likely to be harder hit, with a loss of $2.7bn.
One of the three major educational programs would be Head Start, which is pre-school for children from low-income families; according to senator Tom Kaine of Virginia, the planned cuts to Head Start would reduce services for 70,000 children and put 10,000 teaching jobs at risk.
Another would be Title I, the enormous federal program that funds education for low-income high school students, especially in poor communities where the money for educational resources is low. And special education will also get hurt, to the tune of $978bn according to Jonah Edelman, the CEO of Stand for Children. About 30.7 million children would be affected according to Harkin – which, to get a sense of scale, is about a tenth of the US population.
The National Journal has a rundown on what the sequester will mean for kids and “the young and powerless.”
What health programs?
There are a lot of cuts related to health. Medicare cuts would probably be the biggest, although those are not to the actual services – Medicare will just pay doctors less for their services. Actually, it will be a lot less – up to $3bn less this year alone. That will have unintended consequences, for sure, but they’re hard to quantify right now. Some are worried that the cuts could make the shortage of doctors much worse, since Medicare also pays $3bn to fund medical education programs and pays for doctors’ residency programs.
In other health concerns, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, will see its budget cut by $350m if the sequester goes through. That will reduce a lot of preventative or diagnostic care, like thousands of fewers breast cancer screenings, flu vaccines and HIV tests.
Food programs to the elderly, who cannot shop for themselves, will also be cut by about $43m.
Food safety employees will also likely be furloughed, and there may be about 2,100 fewer food inspection trips by federal investigators. As the Center for American Progress put it: “This means an increased likelihood for tainted food reaching American dinner tables.” So, you know, when you open that package of meat you may want to watch your back.
And you mentioned employment?
Yes. When you cut federal services, you also naturally cut government jobs as well as government help for those trying to get jobs.
Job training programs would take a hit, according to the Center for American Progress, which pointed out that the Department of Labor’s Employment Services and Job Corps. programs would both be cut by $37m and $83m, respectively. Job Corps provides low-income kids with jobs and education, and Employment Services provides retraining and job placement.
The sequester may also end 750,000 jobs, according to the Congressional Budget Office. ThinkProgress, a thinktank, roughly backs that number up with an independent analysis. Macroeconomic Advisers predicts the effect will be to raise the unemployment rate, and since those jobs are not coming back, it predicts, “the higher unemployment would linger for several years.”
Harkin estimated that about 46,349 employees in the education sector would either lose their jobs or be forced to ask states and cities – already low on money – to pay their salaries.
About 766,000 healthcare jobs could be hit, according to a joint study by three medical advocacy groups. It is one of the sectors most nervous about the cuts.
Anything else?
Yes. A lot of state programs will be cut, too, so you should ask your lawmaker what local programs may end up with less funding. The sequester would take $6.4bn from the states.
If you’re planning to leave the city, state or country to escape the cuts, you won’t even be able to do that very easily. The Federal Aviation Administration’s budget will be cut, which could cause it furlough 10% of its employees on any given day, which will, in turn, delay flights.
Also, if you visit national parks, you might find that they’re not as well-maintained, or that some of the animals there may not be as well cared for. According to a leaked memo found by the Associated Press, programs at every park from Yosemite to Cape Cod National Seashore could be cut.
Heidi Moore
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/22/us-sequester-guide-spending-cuts