se tutto va bene … siamo rovinati

La fine del boom delle materie prime

Ci sono segnali che indicano come la recessione economica sia in procinto di trasformarsi in una nuova recessione globale. Dopo il crollo dei mercati finanziari, l’economia mondiale ad alto sostegno finanziario ha incontrato il suo secondo limite, quello delle finanze dello Stato. Un nuovo crack potrebbe colpire innanzitutto, come è avvenuto nella prima metà del 2009, i paesi fortemente esportatori, e li colpirebbe tanto più in quanto il loro mercato interno rappresenta una quota minore del loro PIL. Questo non fa ben sperare, soprattutto per la Germania, con cui le élite si felicitano per la sua leadership mondiale nei settori chiave dell’industria. Ci sarà un duro colpo anche per i paesi emergenti, tanto decantati, che hanno guadagnato la loro recente crescita economica sulla base di un orientamento basato esclusivamente sulle esportazioni.
Tuttavia, si può dipendere in molti modi dal mercato mondiale. Mentre la Cina, nonostante un controllo precario della produzione, agisce come la fabbrica del mondo, la maggior parte delle economie emergenti rimangono in gran parte dipendenti dalla esportazione di materie prime. Di fronte ai paesi sviluppati, il loro deficit abituale è irrimediabile. Strutturalmente parlando, hanno visto perfino deteriorarsi la loro posizione, nella misura in cui i loro processi di industrializzazione si sono ridotti o, nella migliore delle ipotesi, hanno rallentato. Questo fatto, finora, è stato nascosto dal boom delle materie prime, legato alla crescita economica globale ed alimentato dal deficit, e soprattutto legato all’appetito insaziabile della crescita esponenziale cinese per questo tipo di merci. Una nuova recessione globale metterebbe spietatamente in evidenza la situazione particolarmente disperata dei paesi produttori di materie prime.
Per esempio, in Brasile il boom degli ultimi anni si rivela assai fragile. Il successo delle esportazioni è infatti basato principalmente sulle materie prime industriali ed agricole, come il minerale di ferro, lo zucchero, l’etanolo, il caffè e la carne. Finché i prezzi di questi prodotti crescono, questi incoraggia la crescita e le riserve di valuta, ma in caso di recessione globale, questo processo può invertirsi in fretta, perché nasconde un serio cambiamento nella struttura delle esportazioni. Mentre la quota dei prodotti industriali è diminuita del 16% negli ultimi cinque anni, si osserva che quella delle materie prime è aumentata nella stessa percentuale. In altre parole, il contributo dell’industria al PIL è diminuito di quasi la metà. Un fattore importante di questa de-industrializzazione è costituito dal commercio estero con la Cina, dal momento che, in cambio di materie prime, essa ha inondato il mercato brasiliano di prodotti industriali a basso costo. Questo funziona solo fino a quando i prezzi delle materie prime rimarranno elevati.
Ma di gran lunga peggiore è la situazione di paesi come la Russia e il Venezuela, che vivono esclusivamente delle flebo delle loro esportazioni di petrolio e gas naturale. Certo, l’esaurimento delle risorse naturali promette, sul lungo termine, un eccesso di domanda, ma nel breve e medio termine, questi paesi potrebbero difficilmente sopravvivere ad un declino ciclico dei prezzi dell’”oro nero”. Per quanto alle economie terribilmente indebitate degli Emirati e dell’Arabia Saudita, con i loro folli progetti di costruzione, rischiano il crollo in caso di un ruzzolone dei prezzi del petrolio. Una tale evoluzione sarebbe fatale non solo per i regimi autocratici dei paesi esportatori di petrolio, ma creerebbe una reazione a catena che aggraverebbe dell’altro la crisi finanziaria e la recessione globale.
- Robert Kurz -
(tradotto da: http://palim-psao.over-blog.fr/article-fin-du-boom-des-matieres-premieres-par-robert-kurz-87833688.html )

http://francosenia.blogspot.com/2011/11/se-tutto-va-bene-siamo-rovinati.html

venerdì, 14 gennaio 2011
IL PROBLEMA DEI PROBLEMI

http://magazine.ciaopeople.com/News_WorldInfo-1/Mondo-8/Brasile,_inondazioni_nello_stato_di_Rio_de_Janeiro%3A_oltre_500_morti-24738

http://www.notizieoggi.com/2011/01/australia-inondazioni-provocano-almeno-8-morti/

http://www.diariodelweb.it/Articolo/Mondo/?d=20110107&id=180396

Quando io dico che la situazione mondiale non ha soluzioni possibili che il sistema capitale possa inventarsi per uscire dalla crisi, e che quella del Caos è la sola legge che comanda su qualsiasi programmazione o presunta locomotiva, lo dico certo per PARTE PRESA perché sto dalla parte degli sfruttati del mondo ma mi pare evidente che le cose stanno così, qualsiasi soluzione ormai non risponde e non è rispondente.
Allora pochi giorni fa in Pakistan si facevano gli scontri su queste motivazioni

http://it.euronews.net/2010/08/03/pakistan-35-morti-in-scontri-politici-a-karachi/

oggi invece gli scontri ci sono per questo:
Intanto la Protezione civile ha segnalato che in Baluchistan centinaia di villaggi sono stati cancellati dalla furia delle acque, mentre varie città (Dera Allahyar, Rojhan Jamali, Sohbatpur, Manjho Shori, Baba Kot e Chhatar) sono state evacuate.
Lo stesso è accaduto nel Sindh dove la città di Jacobabad ha subito le peggiori devastazioni della sua storia e dove i soccorritori hanno trasferito decine di migliaia di persone a Sukkur, terza città per importanza della provincia.
Qui, riferiscono i media, gruppi di migliaia di senzatetto hanno inscenato ieri manifestazioni incendiando pneumatici, bloccando le strade e scontrandosi con la polizia dopo che un ospite del campo di sfollati di Shikarpur Road è morto di stenti.

http://www.tio.ch/aa_pagine_comuni/articolo_interna.asp?idarticolo=579414&IDSezione=9&idsito=1&idtipo=2

Cosa se ne deduce? se ne deduce che una serie di fattori in concomitanza coincidono per la assoluta ingovernabilità presunta e presuntuosa..
Intanto partiamo da un fatto che per me resta il problema dei problemi ossia la inurbazione forzata che lo sviluppo capitalista ha sempre richiesto dal famoso telaio meccanico quando fu inventato fino ad ora.
E’ progredita la tecnologia insieme a lei è..progredita la inurbazione forzata …sotto ci sono alcune cifre che ho trovato in rete nemmeno aggiornate, per altro.
Come è possibile controllare le megalopoli che diventano sempre più megalopoli? non gli basta tutta la tecnologia di controllo che hanno!
Se noi consideriamo che la inurbazione selvaggia ha impoverito le zone contadine, che la maggior parte del territorio ex contadino è asservito alla coltivazione e all’allevamento su scala industriale e che chi produce cibo non ha cibo! e che per questo motivo i produttori di derrate per i ricchi si incazzano sempre di più!, se a questo aggiungete la crisi che si somma alle carestie, alla siccità, ai terremoti, alle alluvioni, a qualsiasi evento naturale che in una società GLOBALE CAPITALISTA non è naturale, e in più!la GUERRA guerreggiata avete chiaro che non c’è via di soluzione, ne locomotiva che possa tirare sia sul piano interno che su quello internazionale.
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LA FAME! E LO SFUTTAMENTO
vittoria
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12 Kolkata (Calcutta) India 14550000 incl. Haora
13 Buenos Aires Argentina 13700000 incl. San Justo, La Plata
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